Japan
has featured highly in the news in 2013-14 especially in its dispute with China
over some uninhabited Islands. Japan’s prime minister is spearheading big
changes in Japan’s domestic and foreign policy. This paper seeks to argue that
Abe’s personal beliefs are being reflected in Japan’s foreign policy.
Theory
In
the study of international relations, scholars have outlined many ways of
looking at issues to better understand them, and Kenneth Waltz’s Levels of
analysis are taught to all scholars in their first semester of International Relations
(IR) study.
Waltz
outlines three levels of analysis of foreign policy: The Systemic level which
looks at the role of the international system as a whole; the national level
which examines the role of the state and the individual level which focuses of
the idiosyncratic nature of individual leaders in determining a nation’s foreign policy.
Gerner
in Neack et all (1995) explains Individual-level theories as those that focus on decision makers ‘in order to
understand how an individual's belief system, the way an individual perceives,
interprets, and processes information about an international situation, and
idiosyncratic personal attributes explain foreign policy choices.’ (p24)
For
Jerel Rosati (Neack et al, 1995) Individual level foreign policy can be spoken
of as a cognitive approach, an a approach rooted in Psychology and which posits
that ‘individuals tend to be much more closed-minded due to their beliefs and
the way they process information thus, they tend to resist adapting to changes
in the environment. A cognitive perspective emphasizes the importance of
examining the individuals involved in the policymaking process, for they are
likely to view their environment differently.
Rosati
then quotes Quincy Wright, who in his magnum opus, The Study of International
Relations, proposed that psychology belongs at the "core" of
International Relations as a discipline: "International relations cannot,
therefore, be confined to intergovernmental relations and conclusions based on
the assumption that they [i.e., psychological studies] fail to provide an
adequate foundation for prediction and control. The minds of individuals who
constitute the world's population, the influences that affect them, and the
influences they exert, both domestic and foreign, must be taken into account by
examining their minds" (1955, 433) .
History
both classic and contemporary is awash of tales of leaders whose individual
beliefs affected the way their nations or kingdoms dealt with other nations and
for a more scientific of such leaders, Stephen Dyson in his 2006 study found,
for example that how the erstwhile British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s
‘personality and leadership style did indeed shape both the process and outcome
of British foreign policy toward Iraq.’
Douglas
Foyle in his 1997 study in which he examined the personal beliefs of former
American President Dwight Eisenhower and his Secretary of State John Dulles
regarding public opinion might have affected the way they framed they conducted
their foreign policy in reaction to the
September 1954 Chinese offshore islands crisis.
Holsti
and Rosenau investigated the changes in foreign policy beliefs and perceptions
of U.S. opinion leaders. They found that the elite foreign policy consensus
(that saw communism as the single most important threat to U.S. interests) that
existed during the cold war era was shattered during the Vietnam War. (Rosati,
1995)
Another
example of personality studies was by Margaret Hermann. She researched on the
personal characteristics of world leaders to determine the circumstances under
which these will represent a significant influence on foreign policy decision
making.
In
a series of articles (e.g., 1978,1980,1984) as Rosati (1995) writes, Hermann
examined leaders' operational codes or views of the world, political styles,
interest and training in foreign affairs, conceptual complexity (sensitivity to
the environment), and political socialization, as well as their constituencies
and the functions they perform in relation to those constituencies.
All
of these, Hermann concluded, need to be taken into account in order to assess
leaders' impact on foreign policy.
Rosati
traces the study of foreign policy linked to psychology back to the 1930s and
particularly to the theories of Cognitive Consistency which included cognitive
dissonance, congruity, and balance theories.
Writes
Rosati: ‘The assumption behind cognitive consistency is that individuals make
sense of the world by relying on key beliefs and strive to maintain consistency
between their beliefs. Under Cognitive Consistency, Individuals maintain
coherent belief systems and attempt to avoid acquiring information that is
inconsistent or incompatible with their beliefs especially their most central
beliefs. In other words, "individuals do not merely subscribe to random
collections of beliefs but rather they maintain coherent systems of beliefs
which are internally consistent" (Bem 1970, 13).’
And
as Jervis concluded, "It is often impossible to explain crucial decisions
and policies without reference to the decision makers' beliefs about the world
and their images of others" (1976,28).
As
much as personal traits are indispensable in the study of how leaders arrive at
their foreign policy decisions, like many studies done in the past have shown,
it is not possible to attribute only personal traits as the cause of the
decisions.
Factors
such as the role of domestic politics, external factors, public opinion, the
complexity and gravity of decision to be made, the time available to make the
decision all have to be factored in, after all government is not an a single
block but an ensemble, thus for example studies on the American leaders’ policy
decision during the Vietnam war have been criticised for being too simplistic.
(Neack, 1995: Passim)
This
paper will take an at-a-glance look at Japan’s prime minister and attempt to
argue that his personal nationalistic views are being reflected in Japan’s
recent foreign policy drives as exemplified in the issues of the East China Sea
Islands dispute, his visits to the Yasukuni Shrine.
In
view of the past studies that studies leaders traits, its simply impossible to
know what those leaders are made of as its difficult to access them, their
memoirs or close allies, as such in making postulations about Abe’s being it
should be noted that the only material available for this paper was English and
third party material which is obviously not enough to make a concrete claim on.
Add in the fact that this paper uses no complex software that the other studies
used to analyse leaders. However for scholarly argument, assumptions will be
made on the little material that could be found.
Abe
the person
Encylopedia.com describes Abe as one born in a
political family on both sides. “His maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was a key military leader
during World War II, serving as part of General Hideki Tojo's circle of
advisers. Kishi was an American prisoner of war for three years but was
released in 1948 and later favoured a strongly pro-American foreign policy even
as he attempted to rebuild the Japanese military. He was Japan's prime minister
from 1957 to 1960.”
Many already see Abe as a replica of his
grandfather as Japanese Diet (legislature) member Katsuei Hirasawa told Bryan Walsh
of Time: “Abe's beliefs
and values are similar to Kishi's,” “He's
inherited his grandfather's political DNA.”
His father's father, Kan Abe, served in Japan's
House of Representatives, and his father, Shintaro Abe, was the country's
minister of foreign affairs in the early 80s.
Even if he didn’t want, politics was likely to be part of him and
foreign policy decisions stemming from his very house.
Abe’s first job in the government was in the
foreign ministry and after joining government he never looked back or left
government. He rose quickly and soon was named prime minister.
Abe as a nationalist
Japanese Communist Party Executive Committee
Chair Shii Kazuo used the question periods in the House of Representatives
Plenary Session (October 3, 2006) and Budget Committee meeting (October 6,2006),to
question Abeover wide ranging policy issues[1]
and his questions reveal a lot about Abe’s philosophy.
Shii
is his grilling of Abe revealed that the Japanese governmentin the 1993
statement by Chief Cabinet Secretary Kono Yohei, officiallyadmitted that “[T]he
then Japanese military was, directly or indirectly,involved in the
establishment and management of the comfort stations andthe transfer of comfort
women,” and that “[T]hey lived in misery atcomfort stations under a coercive
atmosphere.”
Shii
said the statement expressed “sincere apology and remorse” to the victims and
resolved to prevent therecurrence of similar crimes through history education
and on otheroccasions. He however said that Abe questioned the statement in
1997. Shii reported that Abe said the “Kono statement” has lost any
justification and wentas far as to call for it to be amended.
This
is one remote indication of what Abe thinks about Japanese history.
Shii
also reported that in his policy speech Abe stated that he would “study individual,
specific cases” to make it possible for Japan to exercisethe right of
collective self-defence under the present Constitution.”
Japan
currently has a constitution that does not allow it to start a war nor have a
military that has potential to start a war. The pacifist Constitution was
handed down to Japan following Japan’s World War aggression. The Highlight of
the constitution is Article 9 in Chapter 2 which contains the forbidding phrase.
It
reads: “Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and
order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the
nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international
disputes.
In
order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces,
as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of
belligerency of the state will not be recognized[2].”
Abe’s
remarks as reported by Shii as far back as 2006 are now a reality as Abe has
actually said overtly that Japan will review its constitution by 2020[3].
But in August 2013, Abe made a remark that reeks a lot of what he, as a person,wants;
he said changing the constitution is part of his ‘historic mission.[4]’
Abe
is pushing for what he calls an “active pacifism” on Japan’s security front,
where the nation “plays an active role in world peace and stability.” Abe has
been quoted[5]
saying he will push for a revision of the Japanese Constitution to be enacted
and in force before the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics comes around. “By 2020, I
think Japan will have completely restored its status and been making great
contributions to peace and stability in the region and the world,” he said.
As
much as sentiment in Japan is rising with people increasingly becoming more
against the Article 9[6],
but Abe’s remarks of it being a historical quest lead one to argue that even if
opinion polls were in the other direction, he would not stop to push his
agenda.
The
newly-released position of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, a party Abe
leads, for 2014 has reportedly[7]
removed the “pledge never to wage war again”, which is vastly different from
their stand just a year earlier. The updated draft of the party position added
a new phrase, “… bolster veneration (for the war dead).”
The
original draft contained a statement saying, “… (the party is) determined to
uphold a pledge never to wage war again and the principles of a peaceful
country.” Again, it points to the determination of either Abe or someone with
more power than him pushing him to the right.
Shii,
in his questioning, quoted from Abe’s book in which Abe argues for a Japan that
has a full military. This was in addition to him expressing disgust at Japan
having to stand as ‘onlookers when other foreign forces in Iraq are attacked?’
Another
thing that came out of Shii’s questioning was the fact that Abe has supported
the forcing of Japanese schools by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, into
hoisting “Hinomaru” (Japanese flag) and singing“Kimigayo” (Japanese National
Anthem).
Abe
was also secretary general of the parliamentary group called ‘Diet Members
League for Commemoration of the 50thAnniversary of the War's End” and Shii quoted a founding statement of the
group which said that it is the responsibility of those who work for national
government to make clear their “fair understanding ofhistory." It also
stated that Japan’s past war was a war for “Japan’ssurvival and self-defence,
and for peace in Asia.”
As
a secretary general, Abe obviously was influential and possibly a leader in
drafting the founding statement and the fact that it was made 20 years ago
shows how Abe views Japan’s history and explains his recent arguments on how
the past should be viewed.
On
December 31st Abe spent the New Year’s Eve watching a movie Eien no zero about a Kamikaze pilot,
after the screening of the movie Abe told reporters he was ‘moved.[8]’
It might sound far-fetched but Kamikaze pilots are at the heart of the Japanese
wartime history and his adoration of the movie speaks of his views of war time
Japan.
Abe
has successfully created a Restoration of Sovereignty Day[9],
an annual event to mark the end of the American occupation, and the motives
seem to be obviously nationalistic as the Japanese get to be reminded of the
nation they once were…and probably support Abe’s plans to militarize again?
On
January 14, 2014, Abe’s minister of education announced that the Senkanku/
Diaoyu Islands will be included in teachers’ manuals as Japan’s[10].
This
is just fulfilment of a lifelong mission, Abe is on record to have helped
sponsor an education bill initially entitled Love for One's Country[11]
when he was not even prime minister. He, even in his early career, became
deeply involved in the incendiary issue of how Japanese school textbooks talk
about recent history, favouring a more benign, sanitised view of imperial
Japan's past actions.
Hakubun
Shimomura, the minister, revealed the information at a news conference, saying
it is extremely important for children, “who are the future of Japan,” to know
their country’s sovereign territory.
The Senkakus, while controlled by Tokyo, is
being disputed by China – calling them the Diaoyu Islands – and to a lesser
extent, Taiwan, who refer to it as Diaoyutai. The Takeshima isles are
controlled and administered by South Korea, which calls them the Dokdo Islands.
South Korea also maintains a small police force in the islands.
This
decision is more about foreign policy than it is about domestic education
policy. By including it in the school manuals, Abe’s government is effectively
saying that the islands are non-negotiably part of Japan.
Before
Abe, the high school manuals made no mention of the Senkakus and this decision
speaks a lot about Abe’s push as a believer in a Japan that he believes in.
Abe
came to power with a 60 percent approval rating and has steered the economy to
good positive figures in decades all of which some analysts have said, gives
him berth to pursue his nationalistic agenda, a view echoed by Tisdall (2013)
who writes: “Abe's initial success in boosting Japan's economic fortunes after
decades in the doldrums, and the enormous damage caused by the 2011 earthquake
and tsunami, has proven a necessary precondition for advancing his autonomous
global agenda.”
To
prove that Japan’s current foreign policy agenda’s is uniquely Abe’s, it is
good to look at the recent opinion polls in Japan.
Despite
opinion in japan getting increasing inclining towards getting full military by doing away with Article 9
and taking an assertive role in international politics, the majority of the
polls still find that most people still want Japan to remain in its pacifist
status quo[12].
The
Wall Street Journal reported that support for a bigger military is driven in
part by the dispute with China, as well as by a critical role the SDF played
following the 2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster.[13]
This only supports the long held argument that domestic politics influence,
when Abe came to power he stayed away from visiting the Yasukuni Shrine and
actually spoke of mending fences with neighbours.
At
a gathering organized by actor Masahiko Tsugawa in Tokyo, Abe opposed the idea
of building a new shrine away from Yasukuni to flee the war criminals that
automatically get worshipped by anyone going to visit it. He said that bereaved
families would not visit a new site, as Yasukuni is where the spirits of the
war dead are. When Japanese soldiers went to battle during World War II, the
slogan used was “Let’s meet at Yasukuni” after death. However, Abe did not make
any comment about the proposed solution of “separating” the war criminals from
the other war dead at the existing shrine[14].
In
2006 he published what became a patriotic bestseller, Towards a Beautiful Country, which was viewed as his personal
testament. Abe argued that "class-A" war criminals charged by the
Tokyo tribunal after the 1945 capitulation were not criminals under domestic
law[15].
This
shows how Abe believes in the war dead and their value and arguably the
relevance of war?
Therefore,
after steering the economy from troubled waters and winning a substantial
approval, not even an income tax raise made much dent in his ratings; he then
started to experiment with his long held agenda.
Despite
little opposition at home, Abe cannot justify militarising Japan and it seems
like his recent actions of rekindling territorial disputes and speaking of war
time controversial topics is mean to anger its neighbours.
The
trick worked, China stages a press conference at least every week to warn
Japan, threaten crushing it and the Chinese media respond to each of Abe’s
moves with all the publicity they can get.
For
example, The Japanese consulate in Shanghai urged Japanese people in China to
exercise caution, releasing an e-mailed statement noting a “strong
anti-Japanese” tone in Chinese media reports. China's Vice Premier Liu Yandong
cancelled a meeting with the Japan-China friendship parliamentarians’ union,
Kyodo News reported, citing the Japanese embassy in China[16]. There
were even riots earlier that saw Chinese people, apparently rallied by the
media, attack Japanese businesses with vandalism.
As
Tisdall writes: “China's threats over the Senkakus, its leadership's continued
snubbing of Abe and Beijing's longstanding tendency to whip up anti-Japanese,
nationalist sentiment to distract attention from domestic problems had served
Abe well, in terms of propelling him into power and keeping him there, analysts
and officials said.”
All
this is fertile ground for Abe, who can now justify military spending
increments and commission a full military by convincing the Japanese masses of
the threat China poses, it’s all a game for Japan.
And
Abe is not stopping at the disputed Islands, he is al out to poke at China,
visiting almost all 10 ASEAN (Association of South-Asian Nations) member
countries and trying to lure them away from Beijing a move Tisdall (2013)
believes is an attempt by Abe to exploit the China Problem, were the rising of
China is taken as a threat to its neighbours most of whom have territorial
disputes with it.
When a super-storm hit The Philippines in 2013,
China initially offered $100,000 and Japan sent almost 1,200 troops to join
relief efforts in the typhoon-ravaged Philippines along with three warships, 10
planes and six helicopters, in the single largest aid deployment by the
country's military[17],
effectively challenging China to a show of soft power.
The
battle continues in Africa, after President of China, Xi Ping along other high
ranking visited Africa; Japan’s Abe has also been visiting the continent making
a rare visit there for a Japanese prime minister.
Abe
wrote in his traditional New Year message that was posted on his website at the
end of 2013 that: “Now is the time for Japan to take a big step forward toward
a new nation-building effort,” and looking at his run, so far, a new nation he
envision is that of a Japan with a military, fighting alongside allies like
United States of America, not negotiating with neighbours over disputed
territory and ready to defend them with war.
In
summary, despite the ratings that Abe had, that would allow him to consolidate
the pacifist nation and wave off the right wing sentiment, Abe went ahead,
apparently unpressured to launch a foreign policy quest that can be explained
more in terms of his personal views.
This
can be calculated from his links to the earlier nationalists in his family tree
and to his beliefs that Japan should not be reeling under the yoke of the
constitution which yokes down Japan.
The
moves are personal because polls from Japan show that the nation still wants to
keep its pacifist constitution and the changes are coming only with Abe, who
happens to have held nationalist beliefs from all along.
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Patrick J. HaneyPrentice Hall, 1995
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